Blips: Boom and Bust

Source: The Glorious Lie of the Indie Bubble
Author: Ben Serviss
Site: Dashjump

The indie game bubble is a myth. The rising number of indie games being produced regularly does not reflect the marketplace that led to the crash in the 80s, and developer/writer Ben Serviss explains why that's the case in a recent post on his blog Dashjump. Problems arose in the 80s not just because of the tremendous glut of games being released, but because many of these games were low quality or were copycat designs that stirred confusion in the marketplace. There may be an expanding number of indie games being released now, but the bar for quality has also raised tremendously, which an impressive number of games are able to meet or surpass. Developers with game design degrees are pouring out of colleges and institutions like never before, which ensures that more indie devs know the basics of how to approach the practice. Game prices are down, and more people are able to get their hands on development tools than ever before.

However, the story's not all roses, as commenter Daniel Cook points out. The indie game space might not be a bubble, but that doesn't mean some of the market trends shouldn't be a bit concerning. Development costs for indie games are going up as more money is being spent on visuals to make games stand out in an increasingly crowded environment. This makes production less sustainable in the long term as it intensifies the need to have a "hit game" (not a statement of quality) simply to survive because there's less room for error. Previously underrepresented genre niches now has overflowing coffers of games for players to choose from to the point where that kind of gap-filling novelty doesn't go as far as it used to. Actually Cook's breakdown is an incredibly succinct post about the difference between development now and in the 80s and opportunities the near-future market may hold.

Either way you look at it though, it doesn't appear that video games are headed for another bust in the near future. I'm not saying it could never happen (Zynga and social games have had better years), but I think we can leave those particular alarms switch off for now. There are plenty of other issues worth concerning ourselves.

Blips: Downward Trend

Source: Game Over
Author: Horace Dediu, Dirk Schmidt
Site: Asymco

You may have run across this story on Kotaku yesterday, which links to some charts and analysis of Sony and Nintendo's video game console business by Horace Dediu and Dirk Schmidt for Asymco. The outlook for dedicated gaming devices looks bleak, but as Dediu notes, the numbers for the upcoming PS4 and Xbox One consoles haven't been added in, since they've yet to launch. Those two major console lanches could turn things around, but Dediu seems skeptical that either machine will achieve sales anywhere close to the Nintendo Wii, which saw an incredible mainstream crossover. Dediu attributes part of the downward market trend to increased prevalence and quality of smartphone games, which use devices that are multipurpose and most potential game console buyers already own.

I was struck by the conviction of so many commenters below the Asymco piece that fervently argue against this data. People who love games do not want to accept that their hobby is being co-opted by a bunch of touchscreen apps, but the statistics seem to say otherwise. Some commenters even brought up the just-announced PS Vita TV as a sign of hope for consoles, but it's much to early to project the impact of that currently-Japan-only device. For the record, I hope the new consoles do well and dedicated gaming machines continue to make sense. My only concern with touchscreen devices taking over is that currenty they're not ready to handle the demands met by gaming consoles, though they're not far off. If tablet PCs can easily hook up to televisions, support physical controllers, and also run graphically intensive games, then I'm all for it. While controllers and TV hookup are simple enough, computing power and storage will remain an issue for the time being.

Only time will tell, but, anecdotally speaking, I don't see game consoles lasting a generation beyond PS4 and Xbox One, but I do think the kinds of games that appear on those machines will continue to be made for popular devices. In the end, it's the games that matter, not the black box that runs them.